The Fermi Paradox and the Great Filter

[Originally posted on Thaddeus the Sixth in September 2015]

Word that water may well flow on Mars (periodically) was met with great excitement by many people. Water makes it easier to land and live there, as well as dramatically increasing the potential for life on Mars.

However, a few people were dismayed by the hugely significant discovery, which seems a little odd. Until you learn about the Fermi Paradox and the Great Filter [before yesterday, I knew of the former but not the latter].

Concisely, the Fermi Paradox wonders why we haven’t encountered any other aliens (yes, space is enormous, but species could have been developing for billions of years more than us, so where are they?). The Great Filter is a reference to a theoretical barrier that is very difficult to surpass, and prevents species reaching a certain technological height (hence why we haven’t encountered any).

A very interesting and lengthier explanation is available here [some fruity language so perhaps NSFW]: http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

The issue with the Great Filter, as well as potentially not existing, is that nobody knows where it is. It might be an extremely early evolutionary barrier, at the unicellular level, or it could be in our distant (or immediate) future.

The human race is inherently unstable, to some degree. It might be that high intelligence (which, on an individual level, has high co-morbidity with many psychological conditions) in a species naturally coincides with instability. It’s not hard to think of the numerous wars we’ve made on ourselves. If we keep doing that, the chances of nukes or biological agents (or weapons yet undeveloped) getting used on a global level will shorten (perhaps to a terminal extent).

We’re also very near the Singularity, a moment when artificial intelligence will exceed that of ourselves. This is significant because we could create a machine, which then designs a more intelligent machine, and so on. As this moment approaches, we’re also developing ever more effective robotic forms of death, which has led scientists to call for laws governing autonomous killing machines.

Inventing autonomous killer robots with superior intelligence to our own would be a very human way to commit species-wide suicide.

Drifting back to Mars and the Martians: if there is life on Mars, then that removes the earliest instances of the Great Filter, and makes it a bit more likely the Great Filter (which may well be an apocalypse of some variety) lies in our future, rather than our past.

Cheery thought. And all because some salty deposits were found several million miles away.

Thaddeus

Review: How to Draw Fantasy and RPG Maps, by Jared Blando

I spend most of my time reading, writing and staring at various screens. But away from this I have the wildly different hobby of staring at a page and drawing stuff. Maps are very common at the start of fantasy books, but how does Jared Blando’s book stand as a guide for those of us with the artistic talent of a potato?

Suggested materials for art include both traditional and electronic approaches and cover the bases you would expect (reasonably nice paper, decent pencils and pens etc).

Naturally, ways of drawing the most obvious features (rivers/seas/lakes, forests and mountains) are all included. A nice touch is adding a panel at the end of each such section offering alternative methods of depicting mountain ranges, forests etc.

Beyond the obvious essentials there’s a lot of little extras that can help add character to a map. Methods of drawing cities are offered, ranging from basic iconography to various mini-city drawings (as per the approach I adopted in the map below). Little distinguishing features to help make each city feel unique are another nice touch (for example, a merchant ship beside a coastal trade city). On similar lines, the author describes ways of indicating different borders, roads and paths.

My own effort at a simple map. 

For each feature indicated above, there’s a clear step-by-step guide that’s simple enough for a drunk wearing oven gloves to follow.

There are also suggested symbols depicting sea monsters, mines, ruins and so forth. Outside the map proper, there’s quite of a lot of interesting extra stuff such as a little font info (full alphabets would’ve been better, though), ideas for keys and compasses, and for bordering the map.

All in all, there’s a lot in there, clearly presented and easy to follow (even for beginners or those suffering from a deficit of talent).

Downsides? Well, all the maps are overland. There’s scope for a second volume focusing on city maps and/or subterranean realms (dwarven kingdoms, that sort of thing). That’s all that springs to mind. Although if we’re to critique things that aren’t included, I would’ve liked to have my copy hand-delivered by Olivia Wilde. There’s also potential for more extreme environmental conditions (icy tundra, deserts, pyramids, igloos etc).

The innkeeper considers this be a four and a half out of five pints.

Thaddeus

Welcome to The Wayfarer’s Rest.

The Wayfarer’s Rest will be a place of news, reviews and interviews, as well as articles (both with subjective and factual slants) some of which will be topical, and others that simply explore interesting aspects of speculative fiction, history, and science.

Occasionally I’ll repost from or dual-post on both my old blog [Thaddeus the Sixth, which I’m maintaining] and this one, but for the vast majority of the time separate things will be written for the two blogs.

In short, it’ll aim to inform, educate and entertain, as the BBC motto went (only I don’t have a £3bn guaranteed income, so if you’d like to check the sponsor/Patreon options [Patreon still in progress], that’d be greatly appreciated).

Anyway, that's enough standing up in front of the class talking about myself. The first proper content will be posted before you can say antidisestablishmentarianism. 

Thaddeus